Nigeria lost crude oil worth N8.41 trillion to theft and poor metering between 2021 and July 2025, according to new figures from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).....KINDLY READ THE FULL STORY HERE▶

The report shows that while daily theft has dropped to its lowest level in 16 years, the cumulative losses remain devastating for Africa’s largest oil producer. Experts warn the damage has weakened the economy, discouraged investment, and exposed long-standing failures in governance.

Billions Lost in Four Years

Data from NUPRC showed that Nigeria lost 37.6 million barrels of crude in 2021, 20.9 million barrels in 2022, 4.3 million barrels in 2023, 4.1 million barrels in 2024, and 2.04 million barrels between January and July 2025.

At average international prices, these losses equal $5.61 billion, or about N8.41 trillion at the current exchange rate of N1,500 per dollar. The stolen oil could have built more than 56,000 health centers, 129,000 classroom blocks, or 10,000 kilometers of roads.

For comparison, the federal government budgeted just N1 trillion for road projects in 2025, far less than the value lost to oil theft in the last four years. The amount also exceeds Nigeria’s 2025 health and education budgets combined.

Progress but Lingering Doubts

The regulator said theft has been cut dramatically. Daily losses fell to 9,600 barrels per day in July 2025, the lowest since 2009. That is down from 102,900 barrels per day in 2021, the worst level in two decades.

“Between January and July 2025, losses were contained at 2.04 million barrels,” NUPRC said, linking the progress to reforms under the 2021 Petroleum Industry Act, new monitoring technology, and stronger military operations.

But energy experts say the damage is already severe. Chukwuma Atuanya, a U.S.-based oil consultant, said Nigeria still needs to raise production by 400,000 barrels per day to meet its target of 2 million bpd by December 2025.

“Losses of 9,600 barrels per day are still significant,” Atuanya said. “Oil theft drains foreign exchange, weakens the naira, and discourages investors. It also causes environmental damage and worsens insecurity in the Niger Delta.”

He added that theft may never be fully eliminated but can be reduced through stricter penalties, stronger community involvement, and prosecution of complicit officials.

Questions Over Accuracy and Accountability

Not all experts trust the official figures. Professor Dayo Ayoade, an energy law scholar at the University of Lagos, said weak metering and reporting make the true scale uncertain.

“It may well be 2.04 million barrels; it may be double that. We simply do not know,” he said.

Ayoade argued that theft occurs mostly in onshore and shallow-water fields, where measuring systems are unreliable. He also criticized security forces for failing to prosecute perpetrators.

“Security agencies burn illegal refineries but nobody is jailed. Trillions have been lost, yet there is no accountability. That shows systemic complicity,” Ayoade said.

Development Opportunities Lost

The scale of losses highlights what Nigeria has missed. Experts note that N8.41 trillion could have transformed health care, education, and infrastructure. Instead, it vanished into illegal networks of theft and vandalism.

For a country that relies on oil for more than 90% of its foreign exchange, even small daily losses hurt government revenue and investor confidence.

“The debate shows a paradox,” said Atuanya. “Losses are lower than before, but the damage from years of theft still weighs heavily on the economy.”

The Road Ahead

Nigeria faces two main challenges: sustaining progress in reducing theft and fixing the governance and security failures that allowed trillions to disappear.

Experts say the path forward requires better metering, transparent reporting, stronger community partnerships, and real punishment for offenders. Without these, they warn, the cycle will continue.

As Ayoade put it, “How can trillions vanish and nobody is punished? Until accountability becomes real, oil theft will remain Nigeria’s greatest self-inflicted wound.”