The debate follows growing speculation that former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and former Kano State Governor, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, may not be on the same political platform in the upcoming election.

Reports also suggest possible alliance talks involving the 2023 Labour Party presidential candidate, Peter Obi, and Kwankwaso, while Atiku is expected to pursue his ambition independently with a yet-to-be-announced running mate.

Although the election is still months away, early political movements are already shaping discussions across the country, particularly in the North, where the potential split between Atiku and Kwankwaso could significantly influence voting patterns.

Some political analysts believe Atiku’s widespread influence across northern states gives him an edge, while others argue that a possible Obi–Kwankwaso alliance could reshape traditional voting blocs if supported by a strong coalition.

An African Democratic Congress (ADC) chieftain, Adnan Mukhtar Tudun Wada, said northern voters may become divided due to competing interests and emerging alliances.

He argued that Kwankwaso’s influence is largely concentrated in Kano State, while Atiku enjoys broader support across several northern states.

According to him, the possible inclusion of Peter Obi in an alliance could weaken Kwankwaso’s appeal in parts of the North, where some voters remain sceptical due to perceptions from the 2023 elections.

He also suggested that dissatisfaction with the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) could push voters toward a northern candidate, although Kwankwaso’s role as a potential running mate might reduce enthusiasm among some of his supporters.

In contrast, the Kano Obidient Coordinator, Barrister Ibrahim Muhammad, said the voting pattern in 2027 could differ significantly from that of 2023.

He argued that a possible Obi–Kwankwaso alliance could attract broader support across the North, especially if backed by a strong opposition coalition.

Muhammad added that voting behaviour would depend on candidates’ home-base strength, running mates, and voters’ perception of who has the strongest chance of defeating President Bola Tinubu.

He also pointed to ongoing discussions among opposition parties about forming a wider coalition ahead of the election, suggesting that such a merger could strengthen the opposition’s chances in several regions.

However, some political voices, including activist Mamman Buhari, dismissed both Atiku and Kwankwaso, accusing them of prioritising personal ambition over collective political interest.

He criticised Kwankwaso’s alignment with Obi and questioned Atiku’s long-standing presidential ambition, saying both politicians should reconsider their roles ahead of 2027.