The coalition initially gained momentum after attracting high-profile politicians, including Peter Obi and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, whose involvement boosted its visibility and political weight.

However, the emerging structure suffered a major setback following the reported exits of both Obi and Kwankwaso, triggering fresh uncertainty within opposition ranks and raising concerns about the coalition’s survival.

As both politicians reportedly move toward a new platform, the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), questions are now being asked about whether the opposition alliance is already weakening or merely going through internal restructuring ahead of 2027.

2023 Pattern Reappearing?

Analysts argue that the situation mirrors the 2023 election cycle, where a split in opposition votes among the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Labour Party (LP), and the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) ultimately benefited President Bola Tinubu and the APC.

The ongoing debate over zoning within opposition parties has also resurfaced, with internal disagreements shaping tensions in the ADC. Atiku Abubakar is said to be positioning himself for the presidential ticket, while Rotimi Amaechi is also expected to contest the party’s primary.

Meanwhile, discussions around the newly formed NDC suggest it may have attempted to resolve zoning concerns that previously created friction within the ADC. Kwankwaso had reportedly supported a zoning arrangement and was open to serving as Obi’s running mate, a move that could have influenced power-sharing negotiations.

Tinubu Factor And Opposition Division

A public affairs analyst and lecturer at the Nigerian Institute of Journalism (NIJ), Jide Johnson, said the opposition lacks ideological stability and remains fragmented.

He argued that Nigeria’s major political parties are driven more by ambition than ideology, noting that many key political actors have moved between the PDP and APC over the years.

According to him, this fluidity makes it difficult to clearly define ruling and opposition blocs, as many politicians share similar governing philosophies regardless of party affiliation.

He added that Peter Obi stands out as a relatively newer force compared to other major political actors who have dominated the political space for decades.

Johnson further explained that it is too early to predict the outcome of the 2027 elections, stressing that internal party primaries and post-primary crises will play a major role in shaping alliances and voter strength.

He also referenced historical precedents, such as the 1999 alliance between opposition groups, to illustrate how coalitions can either succeed or collapse depending on unity and strategy.

APC Advantage And Electoral Dynamics

On concerns about internal crises within the APC, Johnson noted that such disputes are common after primaries but can be managed through political negotiation and compensation.

He added that dissatisfaction among aspirants often leads to realignment rather than defection, especially under the current 2026 Electoral Act, which restricts movement between parties after primaries.

According to him, this legal framework strengthens established parties like the APC, while making it harder for opposition groups to regroup after internal disputes.

He concluded that although uncertainties remain, the current political landscape appears to favour the ruling party due to fragmentation within the opposition.