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Nigeria’s Oil Output Drops 8.3% – Production Hits Low Amid Ongoing Challenges.
Nigeria’s Oil Production Drops 8.3% in December 2025, Failing to Meet OPEC and Budget Targets.....KINDLY READ THE FULL STORY HERE▶
Nigeria’s crude oil output, including condensate, fell sharply by 8.3% year-on-year to 1.544 million barrels per day (bpd) in December 2025, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) reported. This marks a decline from 1.684 million bpd in December 2024, highlighting ongoing challenges in the country’s oil sector.
Although the Commission did not specify reasons for the drop, industry experts pointed to limited investment, declining production capacity, insecurity, and weak investor confidence as key factors.
On a month-to-month basis, production slipped slightly from 1.599 million bpd in November 2025 to 1.544 million bpd in December.
OPEC Quota Shortfall
The data also revealed that Nigeria failed to meet its 1.5 million bpd production quota under the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Of the total output, 122,385 bpd were condensate, which OPEC does not count toward its quota, leaving actual crude oil production at 1.422 million bpd, below the agreed level.
Missed Federal Budget Benchmark
Nigeria’s oil output also fell short of the 2025 budget benchmark of 2.06 million bpd, which was set at an oil price of $75 per barrel and an exchange rate of roughly ₦1,500 to the dollar. NUPRC stated:
“Lowest and peak combined crude oil and condensate were 1.52 million bopd and 1.82 million bopd, respectively. The average crude oil production represents 95% of OPEC quota (1.5 mbpd). Daily average production was 1,544,345 bpd, comprising crude oil (1,421,960 bopd) and condensate (122,385 bpd).”
OPEC’s January 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report confirmed the decline, noting a slight month-on-month drop from 1.436 million bpd in November 2025 to 1.422 million bpd in December 2025, representing a 0.9% decrease. On a year-on-year basis, production decreased from 1.485 million bpd in December 2024.
Insecurity and Policy Gaps Behind Decline
Professor Emeritus of Petroleum Economics, Wumi Iledare, attributed the slump to structural and governance challenges in Nigeria’s oil sector. Speaking to Vanguard, he said:
“The reasons are familiar: insecurity, a mature basin with no major new discoveries, and the failure to offer fresh hydrocarbon blocks for bidding. Governance gaps and policy uncertainty continue to weaken investor confidence.”
Iledare also criticised the selective implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), stressing the need for a designated leader with institutional authority to drive the sector.
“Too many proxy drivers will not work. I cannot recall the last time Nigeria met its OPEC quota,” he added.
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