In a free, fair and credible contest on September 21st, 2024, the following postulations are informed by the trajectory of elections in Nigeria and around the world with a very minimal margin of error. Here, I tried to take a deep look at previous election results in various domain, the current strength of the various political parties and their key players like in every game where the quality of available players is significant, the overriding sentiments in the unique urban and rural settlements, and the forces of inhibition and fair play.

Edo South Senatorial District will remain the battleground in Edo 2024 as it houses 58 per cent of the entire Edo State voting population. The big winner here has minimum needs from the other two Senatorial Districts; hence, Godwin Obaseki of the PDP won in 2020 due to the insurmountable margin from the metropolis of Edo South Senatorial District. So, the emphasis of this analysis will be on Edo South.

First, let’s take a closer look at the dynamics of the Edo North Senatorial District. The overwhelming influence of Senator Adams Oshiomhole since taking power in Edo State as Governor between 2008 to 2016 is still very potent. His influence has seen the APC dominating elections in the area in 2012, 2015, 2016, 2019, 2020 and most recently, 2023, where he not only won the Senatorial District to become a Senator but produced the entire three House of Representatives seats for the district. The majority of the House of Assembly seats likewise.

Oshiomhole’s old and recent past resistance to maintaining a lead in Edo North above 70 per cent have been the likes of Chief Dan Orbih, Late Chief Raymond Dokpesi, Rt. Hon. Phillip Shaibu, Rt. Hon. Kabiru Adjoto and a host of others. They have now migrated their support towards him ahead of the crucial Edo 2024 election. To say APC will win Edo North Senatorial District is an understatement; it is now a matter of possible percentage difference between the APC, PDP and LP as the current Speaker of the Edo State House of Assembly, Rt. Hon. Blessing Agbebaku and Barr. Pascal Ogbome, though strong forces, can not make any meaningful difference.

Election pundits have predicted a landslide victory for the APC in the Etsako axis of Edo North and a reasonable dominance in other areas of Afemai, including Akoko-Edo and Owan, where you have the ranking members of the National Assembly of the APC stock like Rt. Hon. Julius Ihonvbere and Rt.Hon. Peter Akpatason who are expected to give a good account of their positions in the scheme of things and be better placed for future election ambitions. Add to the growing sentiment against Obaseki’s administration’s alleged betrayal of two Afemai’s illustrious sons; Oshiomhole and Shaibu, Edo North may just be a disaster waiting to happen to the PDP with little room for the LP.

Since the demise of the political sage Chief Anthony Aneneh, Edo Central, though the smallest and least populated of the three Senatorial Districts of Edo State, has encountered difficulty in enthroning a pathfinder to direct their common interest. Those who tried to wear the garment by themselves, like Chief Tom Ikhimi, are now too old and weak that their participation makes no significant impact. So, you now have an Edo Central that is equally divided between the Progressives and the Democrats. On both sides of the divide are known opinion moulders and election deciders, making it too close to call. But from an outsider’s perspective, the APC Candidate is the Senator Representing the District like an incumbent seeking a second term in office, and he is up against a conventional political newbie but a boardroom guru.

The campaign has been fierce here because they share the same Senatorial District. But while Okpebholo of the APC hails from a majority population of Uromi, Ighodalo of the PDP hails from a minority population of Ewohimi. It is also speculated that while Okpebholo can connect with locals in the Esan dialect, Ighodalo does so in English avoiding the initial mistake of using an interpreter. More so, Okpebholo of the APC seems to have a track record of projects executed before and in the Senate, making his campaign more practical than abstract advertising of Ighodalo’s competence.