Sharing his perspective in a social media statement, Gumi urged citizens and leaders to look past isolated attacks and examine the systemic factors fueling the crisis. Among the core issues highlighted are deficiencies in formal education, declining moral standards, and the widening economic disparity between wealthy elites and impoverished citizens, which he warns breeds deep-seated resentment and frustration.

While acknowledging the necessity of stronger security measures—such as expanded territorial army divisions and the deployment of forest guards to secure vulnerable rural areas—Gumi maintained that physical force is only part of the solution. He stressed that lasting peace requires holistic reforms, including greater investment in youth development, poverty reduction, and improved governance in regions where state presence remains weak.

The Bank of America has cautioned that energy costs could experience further increases as winter approaches unless the dispute is resolved and standard shipping routes reopen. On CNBC, Francisco Blanch, Head of Commodities and Derivatives Research at Bank of America, noted that shipping traffic through the critical waterway has dropped significantly compared to the roughly 140 vessels that previously passed through daily, warning that prices could continue to trend upward without a settlement.

Impact on Nigeria’s Revenue

The price increase has pushed Brent crude—the benchmark for Nigeria’s Bonny Light and the OPEC Basket—to $87 per barrel.

With Nigeria’s 2026 budget pegged at a conservative oil benchmark of $64.85perbarrel,aprojectedproductiontargetof1.84millionbarrelsperday,andanexchangerateof₦1,400/$, the current pricing generates an excess revenue of $22.15 for every barrel produced.

Domestic Fuel Market Trends

Despite the international surge, Nigeria’s domestic fuel market has shown mixed movements across petroleum hubs:

• Lagos Depots: Some facilities recorded slight reductions, with prices at the African Terminal and Aiteo dropping to ₦1,165 per litre, while NIPCO adjusted to ₦1,166 per litre. Major operators like Dangote and Pinnacle maintained steady rates at ₦1,166 per litre.

• Higher Rates: Other facilities experienced elevated pricing, with GulfTreasure and Duport offering petrol at ₦1,550 per litre, and Rain Oil listing prices at ₦1,580 per litre.

These variations highlight ongoing fluctuations within the downstream sector based on location and operator logistics. Continued upward momentum in global crude benchmarks could place additional upward pressure on domestic pump prices moving forward.