Although the emerging coalition of opposition figures seeking power has yet to present any convincing blueprint that clearly distinguishes it from Tinubu’s administration, it could still capitalize on widespread dissatisfaction over what many see as incompetence, corruption, ethnic bias, arrogance, economic hardship and indifference under the current government.

Whether such an alliance would govern differently is another matter entirely. For many Nigerians, however, even the promise of temporary relief from present hardships may be enough reason to support them. Yet, despite this opportunity, the opposition continues to display a troubling lack of unity, discipline and strategic focus.

Even before consolidating, cracks are already visible. This became more evident after the Supreme Court ruling that restored David Mark’s leadership of the ADC, a development that drew silence from both Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso.

There are growing speculations that Obi and Kwankwaso may have shifted attention elsewhere, possibly toward the NDC, suggesting they may no longer view the ADC as their political vehicle.

If true, this would mirror the fragmentation that weakened the opposition in 2023. Obi and Kwankwaso are increasingly perceived by critics as politicians unwilling to subject themselves to competitive party primaries, preferring instead to secure candidacy without intense internal battles.

Atiku Abubakar, on the other hand, could emerge as ADC’s presidential candidate if the party survives its legal troubles, potentially with Rotimi Amaechi as his running mate. Such a development could once again split opposition votes along familiar lines.

Already, supporters of Atiku, Obi and Kwankwaso appear more focused on attacking one another than confronting Tinubu’s government. Their internal hostility has become so fierce that it often overshadows criticism of the administration itself.

This division works squarely in Tinubu’s favour.

Many Obi and Kwankwaso loyalists argue they would rather see Tinubu remain in office than support Atiku, while some Atiku supporters express similar resistance toward an Obi or Kwankwaso presidency.

Their arguments often revolve around power rotation. Obi’s camp insists the South should complete its turn after Buhari’s eight-year northern presidency before power returns northward. Atiku’s supporters counter that an Obi presidency in 2027 could disrupt what they believe should be the North’s rightful return in 2031.

Skepticism over Obi’s one-term pledge also fuels distrust, with many citing former President Goodluck Jonathan’s political trajectory as a cautionary example.

For Atiku’s camp, allowing Tinubu to finish a second term appears strategically safer for northern interests than risking a reset through Obi.

Regardless of which side’s logic is more persuasive, the larger issue remains that while opposition camps battle each other, they inadvertently strengthen Tinubu.

His government’s economic challenges, insecurity and governance controversies are increasingly overshadowed by opposition infighting.

Ironically, Tinubu’s greatest political advantage may not be institutional influence or state power, but rather an opposition too divided to present a coherent challenge.

Both major opposition factions frequently accuse each other of secretly aiding Tinubu, yet in reality, their divisions serve his interests more effectively than any deliberate alliance could.

This is why attempts by Tinubu or his allies to aggressively weaken opposition platforms like the ADC may ultimately be unnecessary overreach. A fractured opposition is already doing much of that work itself.

Tinubu’s joke about sending Senate President Godswill Akpabio to destabilize opposition parties, alongside Femi Gbajabiamila’s remarks encouraging internal disruption, may sound humorous on the surface, but they also reflect a political reality: the opposition hardly needs external sabotage when it is already undermining itself.

With ADC’s future uncertain and legal battles threatening its survival, Tinubu may not need to actively crush opposition structures. Their own disunity could hand him victory.

Ultimately, until opposition leaders such as Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso recognize that political power rarely rewards division, ego and impatience, they may continue serving as Tinubu’s most effective unpaid campaigners.